BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT?

In this silly season where the Big Players are on vacation, volatility abounds! After 7 straight down days this week starts with a huge rally, although  Volume is not really confirming it as the large Volume last week confirmed the downside. Also Bearish was the recent Breadth (advance/declines, new lows/highs) and technical downtrend. MMF (money market flows have been huge the past two weeks, just as they were a month ago at this time, when the DJIA fell off its 18k high.

Although most Sentiment Indicators last week were Frozen!, the leap in CBOE put/call ratio bode for a pop today, as did the McClellan Oscillator; also the Bullish % - stocks on a BUY signal- is at the October 2014 (Crash) low, which ended in a large uptrend! Longer term, market veteran Laszlo Birinyi came on TV to predict a 3000 S&P 500 in two years!! That is about 50% higher than now (2100) - a few more days such as today will get there.

Speaking of vacation - I shall be enjoying the beachfront near San Luis Obispo next week - so no commentary. Here are last week's numbers:

Date>		8/7/2015	7/31/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17373	17689
	NAZ	5043	5128
	SPX	2077	2103
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.9/4.4	9.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.25	2.13
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	78	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.4	12
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1138/2099	2102/1135
Weekly Net:		-961	967
Cumulative:		162261	163222
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	215/555	182/600
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	246/427	172/440
McClellan	Oscillator	-10	18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-338	-338
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	42.2	43.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	24.3	21.1
	Bear	31.7	40.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	7k/(17k)	7K/(13K)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(15K)	(15K)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(242k)	(244K)
US$-WSJ		88.8	n/a
CEOinsider	selling	.17:1	n/a
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s
3-box rev	Bullish%-	51	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekDelay	(5.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	21.3B	UNCH
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JUNE:	505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	JUNE:	1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.73%	0.67%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.1	112.6

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BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT?