Carl Icahn , no dummy when it comes to investing, having made over $1B on Netflix alone! calls the market "extremely overheated". Also worrisome are the technical indicators: OBV, or collective On Balance Volume and RSI or Relative Strength Index which topped out last year. Although stock Buybacks were fairly strong in Q2, even they failed to move the markets very much.
Sentiment Indicators, however, tell a different story: as shown below, newsletter Bulls increased in both wire house newsletters and Individual (AAII) surveys; CEO insider selling (legal) was way low - single digit, over buyers. Most other Indicators were quite calm and neutral considering the global situation. Stay tuned!!!
| Date> | 6/26/2015 | 6/19/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17946 | 18015 |
| NAZ | 5080 | 5117 | |
| SPX | 2101 | 2109 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 9.2/4.7 | 9.2/4.8 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.96 | 1.92 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 61 | 62 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 14 | 14 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1262/1992 | 1766/1477 | |
| Weekly Net: | -730 | 289 | |
| Cumulative: | 165416 | 166146 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 312/269 | 237/241 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 401/149 | 380/146 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -19 | 0 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -208 | -199 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 51.6 | 45.5 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 15.4 | 16.5 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 35.6 | 25.4 |
| Bear | 21.7 | 34.3 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 9k/(8k) | 7k/(51k) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (101k) | (76k) |
| COT:OIL comm.hedg | long-short. | (335k) | (330k) |
| US$-WSJ | 86.7 | 85.6 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | 9:1 | 24:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | 160/50 | 160/35 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 61 | 62 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | (3.5B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 2.7B | (11.1B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 507B | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1256/519/318 | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.72% | n/a | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 111.44 | 112.61 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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