SINKO DE MAYO

Just when I take my usual two week vacation - to the real Casinos in Lake Tahoe- the market starts to get frisky (aka Volatile). Last week saw three big down days, followed by the Invisible Hand huge rally on Friday. Longer term, the DJIA (30) has been on a tear for 3 1/2 years with nary a major correction. As a technical analyst I prefer to look at charts, rather than listen to talking heads disagreeing on what economic event caused the action. What we used to call looking at photos of the markets (before High Freqs started PhotoShopping them) now show a tightening or coil in the price ranges, although Bullishly breaking to new highs - even without the Fed (??).

As some of you readers know I have been writing a sentiment blog since 2004, based on the Indicators I studied for my Chartered Market Technician designation. After halting my journalistic efforts on the Examiner.com and Marina Times, I started popping the column up on Facebook. Kindly, none of my family and friends have complained or delisted me (defriended??), but I decided to stop Spamming everyone and encouraging interested persons to check out my Monday blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com/, or even sign up for it. The column will resume after my return from vaca!

I've used it to try to boil down what I consider recent meaningful research (Barron's, Mauldin, et.al.), as well as the above Sentiment Indicators, such as put/call ratios, newsletter opinions, etc.
The extremes last week (not many from the prior week) were a Bullish reading from the AAII (Individual Investor) where - as you can see below- Bulls and Bears were tied. Margin interest hit new highs (low interest rates could be dangerous), while Futures Traders (COT) smart money is shorting Oil and gold, but long stocks (SPX).
Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/8/2015	5/1/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18191	18024
	NAZ	5003	5005
	SPX	2116	2108
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.8/3.9	10.0/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.51	2.33
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1379/1851	1046/2180
Weekly Net:		-472	-1134
Cumulative:		167766	168238
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	162/153	220/91
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	181/197	258/180
McClellan	Oscillator	-10	-27
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	305	488
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.5	57.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	13.9	13.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.1	30.8
	Bear	26.8	22
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/(26k)	11k/(17k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(74k)	(107k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(328k)	(320k)
US$-WSJ		85.3	85.8
CEOinsider	selling	40:1	NA
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160/40	.160/40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(7.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	8.6B	(5.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MARCH	476Bnh
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	MARCH	1268/472/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.58%	0.60%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.25	113.89

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SINKO DE MAYO