HOPE AND FEAR

Any one who has traded options as well as entered March Madness Basketball pools knows the similarity of emotions with both: Hope and confidence at the start; day by day the hope turns to fear and disappointment; finally both end in loss, as expiry and the Finals occur. At least they both get your attention for awhile!The remedy for options is to SELL them, not BUY them; there is none for Basketball.

Being a "technical analyst" usually means being a Contrarian! This means going against the crowd. Last week was all about Chairwoman Yellen being "Patient" - I do not know if she meant wait awhile or visit the Doctor!

In Barron's this past week Scott Minerd writes the minority opinion (also mine) that interest rate hikes are actually GOOD for stocks, rising 6 months before as well as after the event.

Last week's Sentiment Indicators had these Contrarian gifts: The AAII (Individual Investor) Bears rose nearly 25% week over week; Insider Selling of CEOs has dropped recently (smart money); the Commitment of (futures) Traders also showed a big rise in S&P buying by large traders, with small traders  increased selling (see table below).

Most important was the backing off of smart selling by Gold Traders - finally- and the technical rise in gold recently (hoping it continues, as the $$ starts to weaken a bit after risin 25% the past year)

Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/20/2015	3/13/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18127	17749
	NAZ	5026	4871
	SPX	2108	2053
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.7/5.3	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.83	2.33
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	48	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	16.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2515/745	1411/1834
Weekly Net:		1770	-423
Cumulative:		166509	164739
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	422/172	180/222
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	395/168	236/166
McClellan	Oscillator	22	-38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	369	382
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52	53.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.3	14.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.2	31.6
	Bear	31.5	25.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11k/(56k)	1k/(42k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(57k)	(89k)
CEOinsider	selling	24:01:00	.20:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:30	.160:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	.3B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(19B)	18.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Jan:	445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	Jan:	1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.59%	0.66%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.76	111.51

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOPE AND FEAR