INSIDE(R) OUT

Although the Insider Selling Indicator I have followed for years is not the best signal of market action, one hopes that the Key employees - CEOs- know what their company stock might do. In lieu of the Oct. deadlines ahead, that number blew up from a month ago's 13 to 1 Sellers to last week's 180 to 1 ! That is almost as high as the multi-year record of 235, and higher than the 108 number which occurred in mid-May 2009 - just as this 4 year Bull market was underway.

Even with today's 3-digit drop in the DJIA not much panic has set in for traders/investors. Au contraire, the Nasdaq to NYSE Volume shot up (speculative) to a high 2.76 to 1, near its record high of 3.15. 36B moved into Money Markets last week, which is exactly the same number that moved out of Equity ETFs for last month. Bond and In'tl ETFs remained the same, as did many other Indicators.

For more commentary, please go to:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:


 

Date>		9/27/2013	9/20/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15258	15451
	NAZ	3781	3774
	SPX	1691	1709
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.8/3.3	9.0/4.8
NASD/NYSE		2.67	1.88
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.5	13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1472/1709	2292/886
Weekly Net:		-234	1406
Cumulative:		151348	151582
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	294/98	515/101
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	372/71	471/60
McClellan	Oscillator	5	33
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	302	212
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	n/a	42.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	n/a	21.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	36.1	45.1
	Bear	30.6	29.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11/14	16/(26)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-72	-66
CEOinsider	selling	180:1	52:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	minim.
MMF flows	Change in $B	36B	(1.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	383B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.34%

36B

383B

0.34%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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INSIDE(R) OUT

OPPOSITE EXTREMES

Last week several of the Sentiment Indicators did a flip flop, probably due to the Fed's announcement, just like everything else!
The two-year Treas. yield dropped from a high of .44% to .34% w/w; money market flows went from a positive $20B to a negative $1+B. The equity flows stat shown below is a week late in reporting.
The SPX (S&P 500) ended the week exactly at its Aug.2 weekly high of 1709, with the Nasdaq hitting a 13-year high - meaning, if you put it into your retirement account in 2000, you're back even again, sans dividends.
The ratio of speculation - NYSE v. NAZ - also reversed from a 2.48 (high spec.), down to 1.88.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/20/2013	9/13/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15451	15376
	NAZ	3774	3722
	SPX	1709	1688
WklyVolume (Bshs).		9.0/4.8	8.2/3.3
NASD/NYSE		1.88	2.48
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	55
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.1	14.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2292/886	2132/1058
Weekly Net:		1406	1074
Cumulative:		151582	150176
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	515/101	364/158
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	471/60	379/53
McClellan	Oscillator	33	37
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	212	-82
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	42.3	37.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	22.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.1	45.5
	Bear	29.7	24.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	16/(26)	12/(30).
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-66	-81
CEOinsider	selling	52:1	34:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	2.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.4B)	20B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		382B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		925/335/250
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.44%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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OPPOSITE EXTREMES

DAYDREAM BELIEVER

John Q. Public is still out of the stock market, as Equity funds again had outflows, and MMFs gained $20B. Speculative stocks outgained the 50 largest stocks 5 to 3 and the AAII Bulls jumped 10 points last week. Then there is the Time magazine cover!

For more commentary on seasonality and daytrading, please see:

  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		9/13/2013	9/6/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15376	14922
	NAZ	3722	3660
	SPX	1688	1655
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.2/3.3
NASD/NYSE		2.48	6.6/2.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish			2.36
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.2	15.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2132/1058	1939/1240
Weekly Net:		1074	699
Cumulative:		150176	149102
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	364/158	170/135
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	379/53	225/72
McClellan	Oscillator	37	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-82	-304
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	37.1	37.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.7	23.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.5	35.5
	Bear	24.6	31.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12/(30).	7/-26
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-81	-93
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	13:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	20B	(4.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	382B	JULY
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	925/335/250	JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.44%	0.47%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DAYDREAM BELIEVER

LABOR OF LOVE

Labor Day usually marks the end of the summer doldrums, with the usual suspects of fiscal year end, Congress reconvening, etc., and with added Volatility anticipated from debt ceiling, Syria, on top of a tired stock market cyclical Bull now into its 5th year, September may again become the year's worst - contrary to T.S. Elliot.

 The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (when it's open) have been in a Yin/Yang struggle, first monthly, more recently weekly ups and downs. After last week's turmoil the VIX closed at a recent high of 17; and the McClellan Oscillator in the minus zone. My latest Indicator- McMillan's CBOE equity put/call ratio- is on a SELL mode. Margin debt is near an all-time high - $382B, but Insiders have slowed down on Selling, as have the Large COT traders in the SPX. Also on the COT (Commitment of Traders), Gold commercials have increased their shorts, coming off an 11-year low. The Inflation harbinger - the 2-year TSY- equalled its recent high yield of .40%!!

What is strange is ETFs have seen INFLOWS in stocks, Int'l AND Bonds month over month. Here are the numbers for last week:

Date>		8/30/2013	8/23/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14810	15010
	NAZ	3589	3657
	SPX	1632	1663
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.0/3.1	6.5/.3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.10
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.0	14.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		822/2368	1922/1272
Weekly Net:		-1546	650
Cumulative:		148403	149949
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	133/176	122/647
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	197/75	208/98
McClellan	Oscillator	-23	-3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-325	-219
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.1	43.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.8	21.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	33.5	29
	Bear	30.7	42.9
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4/-12	7/-1
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-88	-68
CEOinsider	selling	19:1	17:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.5B	15.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	382B	JULY
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	925/335/250	JULY
(Monthly	B$$ .)
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

LABOR OF LOVE