DOW(N) JONES/ UNDER-THE-COUNTER!!:

A second wave down in a week's time does not bode well for the U.S. markets. In Elliott Wave terms we are in a downtrend since April - lower highs and lower lows; wave IV did not break up through wave I downwave of April 11. Wave II was a FLAT; Wave IV a Zigzig, alternating. Hopefully 1275 on the S&P 500 will hold -being the Support level of Wave III, and also the Resistance levels of last Nov.,Dec.

For more details on the market, Sentiment Indicators analysis, and an egregious plug for the DITM investing strategy (as the optimal one for a flat to down market based on Risk and Reward) please see my Examiner.com column :

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 Extremes this week were the McClellan Oscillator, still high at 45; this echoes the record high of my cumulative Advance/Decline line. MMF Outflows doubled last week. Margin Debt (April figures) is getting high but ETF levels - also April: stocks, Int'l, bonds are basically unchanged.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		6/22/2012	6/15/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12640	12767
	NAZ	2892	2872
	SPX	1335	1342
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	n/a	8.2/4.5
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	****	1.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	78
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.1	21.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1813/1363	1633/1526
	Weekly Net:	450	107
	Cumulative:	134339	133889
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	260/86	186/127
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	213/132	122/168
McClellan	Oscillator	45	54
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	0	-286
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	37.2	37.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.6	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	32.9	34
	Bear	35.9	35.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(1)/(6)	14/(40)
CEOinsider	selling	22:1	16:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	924	877
3-box rev	Bullish%-	55	50
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(20.9B)	(10.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	APR:	299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	APR:	697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DOW(N) JONES/ UNDER-THE-COUNTER!!:

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL

This week's Sentiment numbers are shown in the grid below - more explanation and commentary can be found to the Examiner.com site:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 

Date>		6/15/2012	6/8/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12767	12668
	NAZ	2872	2898
	SPX	1342	1334
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.2/4.5	8.1/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.82	2.08
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	78	71
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	21.1	21.2
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1633/1526	2613/569
	Weekly Net:	107	2044
	Cumulative:	133889	133782
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	186/127	164/202
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	122/168	88/217
McClellan	Oscillator	54	45
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-286	-450
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	37.2	34
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34	27.5
	Bear	35.8	45.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	14/(40)	3/(37)
CEOinsider	selling	16:1	10:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	877	877
3-box rev	Bullish%-	50	48
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(3.0B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10.7B)	(8.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL

LIKE A SHIP WITHOUT A SAIL, LIKE A SEA WITHOUT A TRAIL:

The balance of 2012 ( notwithstanding the Mayan Calendar) promises to be fraught with many shocks. Starting with Sunday's Greek election and France's Parliament; the end of June marks the Supreme Court decision (hopefully) on Obamacare; then we have the U.S. elections, lame ducks, and the Fiscal Cliff to worry about.
With a mixed message last week from Uncle Ben, the FOMC meets next week, to possibly do the Twist again (hence this column's Neil Diamond lyric). Echoing the Political chaos are Economic extremes -such as record Treasury rates, plummeting commodity prices - the Baltic Dry Rate dropped last week to triple-digit numbers from quads, signalling a slower global economy.
The McClellan Oscillator - one of my favorites - swung from near minus 50 to plus 50 - a toppy sign; this is based on Advances vs. Declines, which reversed almost exactly from 5:1 Decl. to the opposite ratio. 
The AAII Bull to Bear ratio widened even farther (Bullish FOR the market), and MMFunds flows reversed from innies to outies.

Here are the actual numbers:

Date>

6/8/2012

6/1/2012

Indices:

DJIA

12668

12118

NAZ

2898

2747

SPX

1334

1278

NASD/NYSE

WklyVolume (Bshs).

8.1/3.9

7.4/3.8

nasd/nyse

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish

2.08

1.95

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

71

76

Barron's

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

21.2

27

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

2613/569

588/2578

Weekly Net:

2044

-1990

Cumulative:

133782

131738

Weekly

NYSE hi/low

164/202

123/210

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

88/217

90/222

McClellan

Oscillator

45

-41

McClellan Sum

.+750/-1000

-450

-507

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull:tues

34

39.3

Surveys

Bear:-5yrs

26.6

24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed.

27.5

28

Bear

45.8

42

COT:Change w/w

large/small (net)k

3/(37)

2/(30)

CEOinsider

selling

10:1

10:1

BalticDryIndex

GlobalEcon

877

1012

3-box rev

Bullish%-

48

47

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

1 wk lag

.8B

MMF flows

Change in $B

(8.0B)

7.9B

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond

million$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

0.29%

0.25%

For further explanation of sentiment indicators please go to: http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard under Getting Sentimental

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

LIKE A SHIP WITHOUT A SAIL, LIKE A SEA WITHOUT A TRAIL:

DEATH BY WATER TORTURE:

There seemingly is no end to this market decline - no matter how powerful the Indicators in getting historically oversold. Even the best of pundits predicted only a minor 4% "correction", which has nearly been trebled. Even my DITM safety net was no match for this Perfect Storm of negativity.

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com.

At some point a rally will occur, but for now the market has more time than I have $$.
 For further explanation of the Sentiment Indicators, I suggest reading my Examiner.com column: (click on) Getting Sentimental at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		6/1/2012	5/25/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12118	12454
	NAZ	2747	2837
	SPX	1278	1317
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	7.4/3.8	8.6/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.95	2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	76	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	27	21.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	588/2578	2495/690
	Weekly Net:	-1990	1805
	Cumulative:	131738	131099
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	123/210	73/175
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	90/222	75/257
McClellan	Oscillator	-41	-6
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-507	-470
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	39.3	38.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	24.5	26.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28	30.5
	Bear	42	38.7
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(30)	1/(23)
CEOinsider	selling	10:1	7:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1012	1141
3-box rev	Bullish%-	47	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(7.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.9B	1.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .		697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.30%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	stopped	following

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

DEATH BY WATER TORTURE: