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Monday, February 8, 2016

STUPORBOWLED OVER

After all the weeks of high-testosterone hype in the Greater Bay Area, the game itself was pretty boring - although the better team won!!. Record number of 3 and Outs - MVP should go to the kicker!
Thanks to strong defenses, Peyton Manning looked more like Bradley Manning, and Cam the Avatar looked like a deer in the headlights. Half time was much better to watch.

Back to the Dow(n) Jones. DIA and SPX down 14% from their 2015 highs (where's the FED?).
For weeks now I've been touting the TVIX as a hedge (a 3X VIX ETF that goes up when stocks drop) . It has doubled from 6 to 12 just this year ($6 to 12); in last Sept.'s market drop it went to $20!! (No guarantees). Then the VIX went above 50 (now at 28).
Another triple-strength ETF I've held thru thick and thicker, is the NUGT - 3X the GDX gold miners. That has gone from @$20 this year to $48, and was $150 last May on a Gold Spike. Volatility in the options (IV) is huge, so you should sell them not buy them (sell puts, or covered calls, both of which I've done).

Another extreme recently - the 2-year Treas. note went from  a recent high yield of 1.06% to today's 0.66% in a rush to safety. Last week the CBOE put/call was high at 78 and the Bull/Bear surveys inverted to Bearish (ON the market), but that did not help stocks today. Nasdaq New Lows were 10:1 last week.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 2/5/2016 1/29/2016
Indices: DJIA  16204 16466
  NAZ  4363 4613
SPX  1880 1940
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.2/5.6 10.8/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 1.83
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  78 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.4 20.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1072/2133 2370/845
Weekly Net: -1061 1525
     Cumulative: 157091 158152
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 197/378 96/253
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 54/464 45/389
McClellan  Oscillator 15 58
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -560 -725
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 34 29.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 38.1 35.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.6 29.8
Bear  34.7 40
US$-WSJ 97 99.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  38 33
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.2B) 13.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  DEC. 461B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.78%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.4 111.4
  

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 1, 2016

VIEW OF THE PAST

Back to what passes for Normal for the Sentiment Indicators. A couple things stand out: the Reliable McClellan Oscillator shot to a high 58, which is Overbot, so we had a mostly down day today; the Summation is very low - but not near a record. Also unusual - AAII Bull/Bear postcards were inverted to be Bullish FOR the market, not ON the market!).
This week I decided to juxtapose Multi-year highs next to last weeks Indicators (instead of the previous week's), to give a frame of reference. Nothing perilous.


Date> 2016 2/1/16 Multi-Year HI
Indices: DJIA  16466 18272
NAZ  4613 5147
SPX  1940 2126
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.8/5.9 12.2/6.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.83 3.39
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 104.11/08
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.2 90
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2370/845
Weekly Net: 1525
     Cumulative: 158152 168326
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 96/253 950
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 45/389
McClellan  Oscillator 58 Jan.09:108
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -725 (1514).LOW
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 29.2 62.9-12/04
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.4 54.4-10/08
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.8
Bear  40 70.3(3/09)
US$-WSJ 99.6 90.8
CEOinsider selling 33 235:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  WeekLate (3.8B)
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 13.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 461B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  0.78% 507B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 111.4 0.96%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110 Nov.'12:123


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 25, 2016

WAR of 1812

As Technicians we are skeptical of small sample size analysis, but the drop of the SPX (S&P 500) to @ the 1812 Support level at least 6 times since Dec. '13 has at least created a Stop, Look, and Listen moment. Whether this is THE bottom or A bottom, is like a Crack patient in Rehab, after the Fed's multi-year "fix" of the supposed free markets.

Most Sentiment Indicators last week returned to normal - Volume, breadth (except for the New Lows to Highs !!!); The McClellan Summation (of its Oscillator readings) dropped below minus 700, a rara avis! Previous lows hit (1514).The AAII Individual Investor Bull/Bear survey worsened, but that comes out midweek, just as the stock market reversed (Oversold, short covering. Invisible Hand).

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 1/22/16 1/15/16
Indices: DJIA  16093 15988
NAZ  4591 4488
SPX  1906 1880
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.1/5.1 12.2/6.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 93
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22.3 27
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1888/1299 461/2756
Weekly Net: 589 -2295
     Cumulative: 156627 156038
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 26/1451 46/1283
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 28/1055 33/1025
McClellan  Oscillator -6 -78
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -770 -535
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26.8 28.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 36.1 35.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  21.5 17.9
Bear  48.7 45.6
US$-WSJ 99.5 99
CEOinsider selling disc.
3-box rev Bullish%-  28 27
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (1.6B) WeekLate
MMF flows Change in $B .5B 7.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV.: 473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.87% 0.85%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110 110.2


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

DEAD OF WINTER

The long Holiday weekend gave the market to catch  its "breadth", after such a lousy start of the year (worst ever!). Such a plunge on heavy Volume does not bode well for the upcoming weeks - it did serve to drive several Sentiment Indicators to extreme levels:
The key one - McClellan Oscillator dropped farther below the, -50 benchmark, to -77;  its concomitant Summation now minus 535. The AAII (Individual Investor) Bears at 45% to only 17% Bulls, a contrary sign. Both Advance/Declines and New Lows to Highs were huge last week.
Finally, the CBOE put/call option ratio was at a very high 93level. 21st C. highs were just above that from Nov. of '08.

Despite many global excuses for a flat 2015 and a poor start this year, the main culprit is probably the Rehab from the Fed's addicting the markets with huge debt buying - the Fed PUT. Sort of like the housewife who said "I cannot be broke - I still have checks left!!"

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 1/15/16 1/8/2016
Indices: DJIA  15988 16346
  NAZ  4488 4643
SPX  1880 1922
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 12.2/6.1 11.0/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.08
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  93 80
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27 27
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 461/2756 725/2502
Weekly Net: -2295 -1777
     Cumulative: 156038 158333
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 46/1283 162/665
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 33/1025 67/546
McClellan  Oscillator -78 -66
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -535 -178
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 28.6 34.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.7 31.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  17.9 22.2
Bear  45.6 38.3
US$-WSJ 99 98.5
CEOinsider selling Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  27 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 7.9B (24.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.85% 0.93%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.2 110.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 11, 2016

TW3

Old timers remember TW3 - "That Was The Week That Was" - from the previous Century. It certainly was for the stock market - the largest first week decline in the 200-year history of U S stocks since the Buttonwood Agreement in the early 1800s.

The question now is - after 7 years of a Fed-led Bull market, how deep does this or any future correction/Bear market go. It looks like a Recession -global and domestic- are in order, and 7.5 years is the usual time between R's. Should one exit or hedge the market? Depends on your timeframe and goals: Retirement or current income.

Short term Sentiment says oversold, looking for at least a pause - Bullish % at a low of 36% (Aug. was 25); CBOE put/call ratio at 80 ( fear) as does the VIX and the AAII Bull/Bear newsletter show. 
More than 50% of the S&P500 stocks are in a Bear market - off 20% from there highs.
Here are the numbers:
Date> 2016 1/8/2016 1/1/2016
Indices: DJIA  16346 17426
  NAZ  4643 5007
SPX  1922 2043
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.0/5.3 5.3/2.5**
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  80 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27 18.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 725/2502 1128/2090
Weekly Net: -1777 -962
     Cumulative: 158333 160110
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/665 150/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 67/546 143/183
McClellan  Oscillator -66 9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -178 -20
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 34.7 36.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.6 29.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  22.2 25.1
Bear  38.3 23.6
US$-WSJ 98.5 98.7
CEOinsider selling Finance Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  36 56
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B (24.4B) 16B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.93% 1.06%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.4 109.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 4, 2016

SLAY RIDE

So much for the Santa Claus rally that is supposed to bring Cheer the last week of each year! Other than weakening breadth (advance/decline, new highs/lows) last week, there was no warning of today's 450 point decline on the DJIA.
This does no bode well for the January effect, which is the buying of oversold stocks due to year end profit-taking, loss-taking, etc. In fact, it was reported last week that January has been the worst month of the year for the past decade, with April being the best. Luckily the hedge I've been employing -the TVIX has helped balance out paper losses, up nearly 20% today.
Gold also jumped up, in the face of a stronger dollar, which Conventional Wisdom has getting stronger yet this year, with rising rates - both of which remains to be seen.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date> 2016 1/1/2016 12/24/2015
Indices: DJIA  17426 17552
  NAZ  5007 5048
SPX  2043 2061
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.3/2.5** 5.5/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 1.83
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.2 15.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1128/2090 2853/371
Weekly Net: -962 2482
     Cumulative: 160110 161072
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 150/93 88/215
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/183 96/237
McClellan  Oscillator 9 50
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -20 -137
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.7 n/a
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 29.6 n/a
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25.1 26.4
Bear  23.6 31.5
US$-WSJ 98.7  
CEOinsider selling Finance n/a
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 56
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 16B 11B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.06% 1.01%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 109.7 109.9


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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