Being a "technical analyst" usually means being a Contrarian! This means going against the crowd. Last week was all about Chairwoman Yellen being "Patient" - I do not know if she meant wait awhile or visit the Doctor!
In Barron's this past week Scott Minerd writes the minority opinion (also mine) that interest rate hikes are actually GOOD for stocks, rising 6 months before as well as after the event.
Last week's Sentiment Indicators had these Contrarian gifts: The AAII (Individual Investor) Bears rose nearly 25% week over week; Insider Selling of CEOs has dropped recently (smart money); the Commitment of (futures) Traders also showed a big rise in S&P buying by large traders, with small traders increased selling (see table below).
Most important was the backing off of smart selling by Gold Traders - finally- and the technical rise in gold recently (hoping it continues, as the $$ starts to weaken a bit after risin 25% the past year)
Here are the numbers:
|New Hi's/Low's||Nasdaq h/l||395/168||236/166|
|AAII -Bull :wed.||27.2||31.6|
|COT:SPX w/w||large/small (net)k||11k/(56k)||1k/(42k)|
|off.&bd b/s.vs.||10% holder b/s||.160:30||.160:45|
|US equity -ICI||Fund Flows||WeekDelay||.3B|
|MMF flows||Change in $B||(19B)||18.2B|
|MargDebt- top (300M)||monthly||Jan:||445B|
|2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation||0.59%||0.66%|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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