FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME...

From May to November - the historical 6-month bi-cycle is skewed heavily in favor of the November to May cycle (thanks mostly to Sept. & Oct.), so the current one can get choppy at best.
The extreme sentiment readings of the previous week finally paid off today, with the DJIA up  150 - hopefully a 1st-of-the-month rally will ensue and wipe out May's losses.
 Weekly net Advance/Declines swung from minus 2609 to a plus 1805 this week; the CBOE put/call ratio dropped from a Bullish (On the market) 89 to 66. The oversold McClellan Oscillator went from a record minus 110 to minus 6, yet AAII Bull/Bear ratio remains inverted, and Insider Selling has dried up for now.
For more explanation of the Indicators below, please see my upcoming Examiner.com column today:
 

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

I have also used the column to make readers aware of  the June investor meetings - technical, options, and beginning investors. You can get these and 1 or 2 weekly columns by clicking on "SUBSCRIBE".

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/25/2012	5/18/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12454	12369
	NAZ	2837	2778
	SPX	1317	1295
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	10.1/4.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	89
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	21.8	25.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2495/690	297/2906
	Weekly Net:	1805	-2609
	Cumulative:	131099	129294
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	73/175	90/259
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	75/257	92/330
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-110
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-470	-323
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.3	39.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	22.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	30.5	23.6
	Bear	38.7	46
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/(23)	3/(15)
CEOinsider	selling	7:1	13:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1141	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.3B	(5.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.42	5.47

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME...

1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

After falling 1,000 points from its 22% runup high, the DJIA has corrected a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and nearly to the Pt. & Fig. maximum level.  This record decline (12 losing days in the past 14), the most since 1974, has created a much oversold condition. Judging from a strong Monday, after option expiry and the annular equinox, we should  see at least a bounce in the markets -possibly a summer rally.
The McClellan Oscillator hit a new multi-year low of -110 (surpassing -108), the AAII Bull/Bear ratio of postcard opinions of 23 to 46, with the Commitment of Traders on the S&P mimicking it. As I stated in my Examiner.com column (Examiner.com - search Brent Leonard) the Declines outdid the Advances 10:1. a climactic amount on the strongest Volume in weeks. Finally, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio reached 89 -another recent high. Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/18/2012	5/11/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12369	12820
	NAZ	2778	2933
	SPX	1295	1353
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	10.1/4.7	9.7/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	2.37
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	89	88
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	25.1	19.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	297/2906	1238/1937
	Weekly Net:	-2609	-699
	Cumulative:	129294	131903
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	90/259	191/144
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	92/330	163/223
McClellan	Oscillator	-110	-50
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-323	-50
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	39.4	38.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.3	20.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	23.6	25.4
	Bear	46	42.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(15)	3/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	13:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	59
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(2.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.4B)	1.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.47	5.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

BELATED BLOG:

Back from a 4 city vacation with family and friends, here are the results from last week's Sentiment readings:
Markets down 6% so far; CBOE put/call ratio up to 88 with the McClellan Oscillator @ minus 50 - both Bullish. The AAII Bull/Bear still inverted (more Bears), also Bullish.

Date>		5/11/2012	5/4/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12820	13038
	NAZ	2933	2956
	SPX	1353	1369
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.7/4.1	9.0/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.37	2.20
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	88	69
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.9	19.2
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1238/1937	1023/2149
	Weekly Net:	-699	-1126
	Cumulative:	131903	132602
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	191/144	363/82
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	163/223	281/151
McClellan	Oscillator	-50	-1
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-50	276
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.7	43
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	20.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	25.4	35.4
	Bear	42.1	36.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(6)	11/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	30:1	46:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1156
3-box rev	Bullish%-	59	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.4B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.2B	(14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.4	5.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BELATED BLOG:

PARTIAL POST:

Due to leaving early on vacation there is only a partial posting of the Sentiment Indicators this week (and a late posting next week). Ugly Friday after bad unemployment numbers and a French election Sunday. Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear numbers (see Examiner.com column for clearer explanation - Search the site for Brent Leonard- are more complacent than ever, seeing how they are released Tuesday and Wednesday (with AAIIs).
Here are the partials:

Date>		5/4/2012	4/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13038	13228
	NAZ	2956	3069
	SPX	1369	1403
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.6/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE		59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2251/923
	Weekly Net:		1328
	Cumulative:		133728
Weekly	NYSE hi/low		308/102
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l		238/125
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	44
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	276	193
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43	41.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	23.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.4	27.6
	Bear	36.1	37.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k		2/(8)
CEOinsider	selling		58:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1156	1116
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(14.8B)	(.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAR:	295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MAR:	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation			0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

PARTIAL POST:

THE BIG CASINO:

Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/27/2012	4/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13228	13029
	NAZ	3069	3000
	SPX	1403	1378
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	16.3	17.4
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/923	2036/1136
	Weekly Net:	1328	900
	Cumulative:	133728	132400
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	308/102	208/93
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	238/125	194/120
McClellan	Oscillator	44	-8
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	193	139
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.9	44.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	23.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.6	31.2
	Bear	37.4	33.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(8)	8/(5)
CEOinsider	selling	58:1	12:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1116	972
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(8.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.5B)	.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MARCH	$295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MARCH	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE BIG CASINO:

WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

Barron's magazine this week reported the Big Money Poll Result for the upcoming months - even these geniuses can prove to be a Contrarian's delight. Last Fall the number of Bulls was a lowly 52% - as we now know, the market rallied some 24% since then; the previous Spring the number was 59%, just when the when the DJIA was poised to drop 800 points in May, and 1600 points in June. The Poll number is now 55% Bullish (4% VERY).
Barron's also reported the oft-quoted statistic that since WWII the Nov. to May cycle has produced a profit on $100 to nearly $10,000; while its complementary cycle (May to Nov.) would have netted $99, or a $1 LOSS. If today is any indication.....
The Indicators are, on the whole, rather benign with the Bullish exception of a reversal in the AAII Bull/Bear ratio to 31 Bulls to 33 Bears; also the number of Insider Sales to Buys dropped precipitously, and the MMFs actually had a small Inflow for the first time on many months.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/20/2012	4/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13029	12849
	NAZ	3000	3011
	SPX	1378	1370
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/4.0	7.7/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	1.93
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.4	19.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2036/1136	915/2260
	Weekly Net:	900	-1345
	Cumulative:	132400	131500
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	208/93	111/109
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	194/120	113/142
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	-46
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	139	231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.1	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	21.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	31.2	28.1
	Bear	33.8	41.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	8/(5)	2/(1)
CEOinsider	selling	12:1	42:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	972	928
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	.3B	(6.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

SELL IN MAY:

A recent iteration of the May-Nov. rule (6-month cycle) showed if a $100 were invested in the Oct.to May cycle, the profit since shortly after WWII would be just under $10,000 - if the complement cycle were used to invest, the result would be $99 ( a $1 loss). Something to think about these days - a reason to look into the DITM covered call strategy, with the Weapons of Math Destruction looming!
As expected, investors  (those few who remain after the 70% artificial intelligence crowd gets through with them) got a bit defensive in attitude: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose from 60 to 66 the past week; AAII Bears rose hugely from 27% to 41%! Bulls dropped 10 points to 28.
  Dollars continue to exit Money Market Funds (no surprise there) but also from equity funds. Most are still going into bonds, some ETFs. Today's DJIA rally is no surprise after the selloff drove the McClellan Oscillator down to -46 -just off my -50 delimiter.
Here are the weekly numbers:

Date>		4/13/2012	4/5/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12849	13060
	NAZ	3011	3080
	SPX	1370	1398
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	7.7/4.0	6.9/3.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.93	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.6	16.7
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	915/2260	1139/1999
	Weekly Net:	-1345	-860
	Cumulative:	131500	132845
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	111/109	246/68
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	113/142	197/107
McClellan	Oscillator	-46	-25
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	231	540
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	52.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.5	21.5
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.1	38.2
	Bear	41.6	27.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(1)	.6/2
CEOinsider	selling	42:1	44:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	928	931
3-box rev	Bullish%-	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.1B)	(15.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.32%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SELL IN MAY: