FOLLOW THE LEADER:

Looking back over this year, according to AMG Research, Mutual Fund outflows of $20B, which peaked the last week of February through the second week of March (remember that week?), did not reverse until - you guessed it- the exact top of the market on June 11 with $14B Inflows! Although slightly negative this week, they are back to their +/- $1B range.
Last week my decade-long stalwarts (e-mail me for the complete Indicator matrix) that performed the best were: CBOE put/call ratio (the best at calling market bottoms) which climbed still higher to 75; McClellan at a -19 (still a ways from the -50 or so needed); but the Bullish % -stocks on a BUY signal is itself on a SELL signal of 57 (funnily unchanged from the week before, as was the McClellan Summation Index). Did they take the Holiday week off?
Here are the complete numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/3/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8280………8438.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1796………1838…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 896…………918………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq.

put/call ..........…75…………..73……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 27.9………25.9…….......79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc…-19…….-2…….............108-.........(-100)

McClelSum……..…612……612….…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.4…….43.6….…63 ............22.2

Bear:………… 29.9……….28.7……… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.8/44.6….28.0/48.8…….…..

Baltic Dry Index ……3520……..3703…….11700……663

Bullish%- …….…57………..57sell………….…88.....2

*Insider corp sellers.7:1…………9:1…………108:1………….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (.3B)……(.7B)…

ETF InflowsL……… (3.2B)…..(1.9B)….

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

5TH ANNIVERSARY WRAPUP:

Positioned below the current weekly Sentiment numbers are the frequency of occurrence of the major ones in both tops and bottoms over the past decade.
To show how much of a mixed bag they are this week, the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratio is signalling danger with only 28% Bears, while the AAII ratio is the opposite, signalling 28% Bulls!
Bullish % remains on a Sell signal, still in the high overbought range of 57; ETFs and Mutual Funds had slight Outflows, and the VIX is exhibiting a recent complacent low of 25.
Meanwhile, the most reliable indicator at market bottoms (100%)- the CBOE Equity put/call ratio, is still at a high 71, a Bullish area!
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 6/26/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8438………8539.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1838………1827…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 918…………921………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …73………….66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.9………28.0…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-2…………-43……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…612……….823……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…43.6……….44.8……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 28.7………26.4…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……28.0/48.8….33.3/46.4…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3703……..4070…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…57sell…….64sell………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.9:1…………19:1……………108:1………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (.7B)…….8B

ETF InflowsL……… (1.9B)….(.5B)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

		10-year	H(igh)/
INDICATOR	ALPHA-	HI/LOW	L(ow)
		RANGE	wanted
CBOE equity put/call	a	98/46	H=Bull
VIX-Volatility Index	b	90/8	L=Bull
McClellan Oscillator	c	108/-100	H=o/bot
McClellan Summation	d	1568/-1500	H=o/bot
NEWSLETTERS:
Invest.Intell.	e	62/16	inverted
A.A.I.I.	f		inverted
NYSE/NAS short int.	g		n/a
CEO Insider Selling:1	h	108/2.4	H=Bear
SDS (SHORTetf) Volume	i	451/24	H=Bull
Bullish Per Cent	j	82/2	L=Bull
FUND Inflows:Mutual	k		n/a
ETF inflows	l		n/a
Rydex Nova/Ursa funds

BOTTOMS	EXTREME
REVERSAL	INDICATORS
DATE	(see Column 2)
10/11/2002	a(76),b,e,f
2/3/2003	a(98),b,c,f,
4/15/2005	a(78),c,f,
10/13/2005	a(76), c,d,f,
6/13/2006	a(73),d,f,
3/14/2007	a(84),f,
8/17/2007	a(91),b,c,d,f,j
11/26/2007	a(76),b, c,d,f,j,
1/22/2008	a(92),b,c,f,j(19)
3/14/2008	a(94),b,c,d,e,f,g,i,j,
11/20/2008	a(104),b,c,d,e,f,I,j(8),
3/9/2009	a(84), b,c,d,e,f,I,j(13)
	f=18vs70

L(ow)	REVERSAL	INDICATORS-TOPS
wanted	DATE
L(ow)	2/13/2004	d(1364),e,f(69/13),j(88)
H(igh)/	3/4/2005	d,e,f,j(74)
L=o/sold	5/10/2006	f,
L=o/sold	2/20/2007	d, h,j(79)
	10/8/2007	c(50),f,j(80),
H/L	12/10/2007	c,
H/L	5/2/2008	b,f(53/26),h,
n/a	1/2/2009	b, c(108),i,
H(igh)/	6/12/2009	d(1123),e,j(74)
Low
High

5th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE!:

Thursday of this week I am giving a talk at the TSAA (see tsaasf.org for details) at GGU on which Sentiment Indicators have worked the best over this decade, calling top and bottom reversals. For those of you not in the area I would be happy to attach by e-mail (leonbrnt@aol.com) the following documents:
10-year SPX chart with dates of reversals
Definitions of each Indicator
Which Indicator was at an extreme at these turning points
Lecture of the meeting

Meanwhile, after calling the temporary top of last week, a couple of the more reliable Indicators are now in oversold territory: the put/call ratio at 73, and the McClellan Oscillator at -43. While the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratio backed off its toppy level, the more reliable ( read "dumber") AAII is also oversold at 33.3/46.4.
Here are last week's results:

MktSentiment. 6/19/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8539………8800.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1827………1858…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 921…………946………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …73………….66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.0………28.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-43………..-13……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…823………1123……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…44.8……….47.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 26.4………23.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.3/46.4…..39.3/39.3…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……4070………3583…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…64…………74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.19:1……….13:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. .8B……..13.8B

ETF InflowsL……… -.5B……..7.6B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

Heeeeeeee's BACK!:

Just as with the 1987-88 stock market, the mutual fund investor was conspicuously absent for most the long rally - entering near the top. After a record 40% increase in stock prices this Spring, mutual fund inflows last week increased 10-fold, after being flat to negative for most of the year - ETF inflows also increased.
Also signalling a temporary market hiatus was the Investors' Intelligence Bull to Bear ratio - 47.7 to a mere 23.3%! The McClellan Summation Index is still overbought at over 1000 although the Oscillator dipped below zero, reflecting an inverse Advance/Decline week. Bullish Per Cent is also at an extreme level of 74.
This condition should at least cast a caution signal, if not a sell - there is still the possibility that the end-of-quarter may create some racing for the doors for the underinvested, possibly after quadruple-witching of options this week.
Here are last week's results:

MktSentiment. 6/12/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8800………8763.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1858………1849…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 946…………940………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …66…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.1………29.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-13………..12……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1123……..1163……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…47.7………..42.5……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 23.3……….25.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……39.3/39.3….47.6/36.6…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3583………3809…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…74…………74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.13:1……….21:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 13.8B……1.3B

ETF InflowsL……… 7.6B…….2.7B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

NEWS "BLEEDIA":

In his latest book - THE POST AMERICAN WORLD - Fareed Zakaria, a member of the media with his CNN GPS program, as well as Editor of Newsweek Int'l, states that there is less violence and terrorism in the world now than in history - it is the new technology/google satellite "Bleedia" that actually promotes what Terrorism actually is - not the act itself ( I'm sure the 9/11 hijackers were astounded at how much destruction they caused), but the fear itself (as President Roosevelt once said).
It has to be asked how much credence a business that features Paris Hilton, Maury Povich, Natalie Holloway, etc. to garner eyeballs can be trusted to offer daily advice from the very pundits that got us into this economic mess. Who selects which bearish or bullish guest to "explain" the reason for securities' movements, and what is their agenda?
Hard as it is, it is indisputable that making decisions on actionable information (technical and fundamental) is far better than being sold advice (see what they DO, not what they SAY!).
That said, do your best to interpret the following sentiment facts:
After a record runup in stock prices this Spring, indices seem to have levelled off into a trading range, after testing the 200-day EMA. Yet many indicators have a bearish signal this week - the ratio-adjusted McClellan Summation Index is quite high at 1163, and the Bullish per cent (stocks on a BUY signal) is at its recent high of 74 - also overbought.
Investors' Intelligence newsletter surveys are at a recent low in Bears - 25%, with the AAII not far behind. CEO Insider Selling almost doubled last week to 21:1 over Buyers. Here are the actual numbers:

MktSentiment. 6/5/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8763……….8500.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1849………1774…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 940…………919………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …63…………..61……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 29.6……….28.9…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………12…………10……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1163……..1058……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42.5………..40.9……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 25.3………..28.4…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.6/36.6…..40.4/48.6…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3809………3494…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…74………….66………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.21:1………..12:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.3B……. .3B

ETF InflowsL……… 2.7B…….1.1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

'

GREEN SHOOTS VS.LAWNMOWER:

Even though the new administration is using the only tool available to mend a broken recovery with little pain and discomfort, the Stimulus will probably lend temporary relief , even create a dependency. It would be greatly disappointing if all the money and positive verbiage thrown at the economy did not have some rebounding effect.
Contrarians usually disagree with Conventional Wisdom, especially when such great minds such as Niall Ferguson, Bob Prechter, Louise Yamada, et.alia all agree that we should at least test the March lows or go lower after this brief relief rally ends in weeks or months. Even partisans such as Reich and Krugman have disagreements with policy.
Last week's Sentiment and Breadth numbers shown below were barely moved from the prior week - exceptions were a huge upward move in the Baltic Dry Index (still at 1/3 of its ultimate high) to 3494; although the Investors' Intelligence Bull-to-Bear survey was not available at press time, the AAII small investor postcards showed an inversion to Bearish dominance (Bullish FOR the market).
The ATR (Average True Range) of market highs and lows for 4 weeks have been little changed, as have the CEO Insider selling, Mutual Fund flows, short interest, etc. This pig in a python contraction could bode for a strong June, as we have seen today (Monday).

MktSentiment. 5/29/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8500……….8277.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1774……….1692…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 919…………887………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …61………….64……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.9………32.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………10…………-29……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1058……..1076……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…n/a…………40.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… n/a…………29.1…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……40.4/48.6…..33.7/45.4…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3494………2786…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…66…………..65………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.12:1………..13:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. .3B…… .8B

ETF InflowsL……… 1.1B……… .7B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

MEMORIAL DAY:

After 25 years in this business one learns to disregard 99% of what he reads and hears - the exception is when there is a consensus of intelligent life from those whom one respects, in this case: fund guru Michael Steinhardt,Louise Yamada, and, recently Woody Brock - all of whom feel the market has a bit to go on the upside, then down some more...possibly drastically. And Stephen Leuthold thinks June could rally more due to fund managers not yet invested before the quarter ends.
In this anticipation of a holiday, with very low Volume Friday, most indicators regressed to their mean, although the Investors' Intelligence survey and AAII postcards are sending a differing message of Bearishness - one will prevail.
The Baltic Dry Index of global shipping continues to rise, as China leads the economic way at 8% GDP.
Add to this mix that a Florida realtor in Barrons wrote that a second downwave of Real Estate madness is about to enfold there and elswehere starting in June.
Here are the sentiment numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/22/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8277……….8268.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1692……….1680…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 887…………882………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …64…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 32.6……….33.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-29………..-38……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1076………1132……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.7…………41……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 29.1………..33.7…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.7/45.4…43.8/35.2….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……2786………2544…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…65………….67………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.13:1……….19:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .. .8B……..2.3B
ETF Inflows……… .7B……..4.8B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.